In climatology, it is difficult to predict El Niño or La Niña with a great degree of certainty more than six months ahead of time, according to Penny Byrne of Standard Bank.
But she suggested that a reliable forecast was one put out jointly by the Climate Prediction Centre and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society.
“Neutral conditions were present in the tropical Pacific during mid-June, marking the end of the previous El Niño.
“Most models indicate that La Niña is likely to develop in July/August. However, the exact timing and strength of this transition is difficult to predict with accuracy.”
But the consensus model view currently forecasts a 4% chance of El Niño during the December, January, February season, a 58% chance of La Niña, and a 38% chance of a neutral year.
“This is very good news for southern Africa,” Byrne added, “as it suggests a 96% chance of normal or above-average rainfall during the 2016/17 rainfall season. The closer we get to the 2016/17 summer season, the more accurate the forecasts will become.”
Byrne also noted that food inflation had been rising over most of southern Africa this year. “As a net exporter of maize,” she added, “SA’s yellow maize price is in line with export parity unless we run a shortage - in which case the maize price moves to import parity.
“Typically, maize is planted by the first week of December at the latest in order to avoid frost and cold weather in April and to increase exposure to SA’s rainy season. With El Niño waning and likely to turn to La Niña in the summer, food inflation pressures are likely to ease across the region in 2017 after the first harvest in March/April.”
