Consumer confidence split along racial lines

There’s an interesting anomaly in the latest FNB/BER consumer confidence which rose slightly, from +9 in 1Q2011 to +11 in 2Q2011, not all that different from the +14 level prevailing throughout 2010. But some consumer groupings are more confident than others. According to FNB chief economist Cees Bruggemans, black consumers, Sotho and Nguni-speakers express overwhelming confidence. “These urban groupings show average majorities of +18 (suggesting 60/40 splits in favour of confidence), high by historic standards and more reminiscent of the late stages of expansionary upswings rather than the early phase (as the case today). “Most minorities,” he says, “are more coy, but mostly still helpful in sustaining the overall majority of confidence, especially when asked about their own financial prospects.” White consumers show only a small confident majority of +2, with English-speakers of all kinds (-1) and Afrikaans-speakers of all kinds (-2) not registering much different readings. “There does, though, persist a considerable gap with Black consumers (though the gap regarding own financial prospects is only one-third the size).” The reasons, he says, could be that successful black urbanites are favoured by financial and economic trends. “They retain high confidence in government (going by election results) and sizeable majorities believe the economy has good prospects. “White consumers clearly have far less trust in the economy’s prospects, possibly also reflecting their political views.”