Global air cargo spot rates declined for a third consecutive month in August but remained 24% above year-earlier levels, as demand growth outpaced available capacity, according to Xeneta.
Cargo volumes increased 6% year on year, following July’s 5% growth, while capacity remained flat. Global spot rates averaged $3.13 per kilogram, down 3% from July.
The pace of annual rate growth slowed from 41% in May to 38% in June, 28% in July and 24% in August.
Despite the easing, shippers faced a gradual rather than sharp reduction in freight costs, said Xeneta chief airfreight officer Niall van de Wouw.
“We are not picking up signals on a big uptick in demand in the coming months, and we think airfreight rates will go down further, just not as quickly as shippers want to see. It remains a seller’s market.”
Shippers continued to buy capacity on the short-term market while waiting to see whether monthly rate declines would accelerate. However, demand growth and renewed increases in jet fuel prices were limiting the pace of reductions, Xeneta said.
Its dynamic load factor, which measures capacity utilisation using cargo volume and weight alongside available capacity, rose three percentage points year on year to 61%.
Conditions varied across trade lanes. China-to-Western Europe spot rates fell 6% month on month to $3.85/kg in August, following a 22% decline in July. Southeast Asia-to-Europe rates dropped 7% to $4.20/kg.
The declines coincided with weaker Chinese e-commerce exports to Europe. Xeneta and Trade and Transport Group’s analysis of Chinese customs data showed that low-value and e-commerce exports to Europe fell 25% year on year in July.
Van de Wouw cautioned against drawing conclusions about the longer-term outlook from the initial decline, pointing to the recovery in China-US e-commerce shipments following earlier changes to US import-duty treatment.
On the transpacific, shipments linked to artificial intelligence continued to support demand. Northeast Asia-to-North America spot rates increased 2% month on month to $5.76/kg in August.
Europe-to-North America rates also rose 2% from July, although plentiful summer belly capacity kept them 25% below late-February levels.
Xeneta maintained its forecast of 4% growth in global air cargo demand for 2026.
“The market has been performing at a relatively stable level for several months,” Van de Wouw said.
