Global goods trade is forecast to grow faster towards 2029 than it did in the previous decade although annual growth is expected to ease as risks from conflict, tariffs and reliance on artificial intelligence (AI) investment persist.
The October DHL Globalization Tracker projects average annual trade volume growth of 3.4% from 2026-2029 compared with 2.7% from 2016-2025. Growth is forecast to moderate from 5.3% in 2025 to 4.6% this year and 3.6% in 2027.
The research, commissioned by DHL and authored by New York University’s Stern School of Business researchers, also records an 11% year-on-year increase in sub-Saharan Africa’s trade value in January-May 2026. East Asia and the Pacific led regional growth at 24%, followed by Europe at 12%.
Those regional figures are measured in current US dollars and do not indicate equivalent increases in freight volumes.
Demand for goods supporting AI infrastructure has helped sustain trade but the tracker warns that this concentration leaves growth exposed to a slowdown in the sector. Further conflict escalation and new trade barriers also threaten the outlook.
Goods used in AI infrastructure, including semiconductors and data transmission equipment, accounted for 76% of global goods trade growth in the first quarter of 2026, according to World Trade Organization and Organisation for Economic Co‑operation and Development analysis cited in the research.
However, the strength of global trade has masked sharp differences between markets. Trade values in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates fell 37% and 7% respectively in the first five months of 2026 as disruption in the Strait of Hormuz affected their economies.
The research also points to changing trading relationships. The US and China accounted for 1.6% of world trade through their bilateral exchanges in January-May, down from a peak of 3.5% in 2015.
That decline has not been accompanied by a comparable retreat from China among close US allies. Meanwhile, goods imported by the US from other countries increasingly contain Chinese materials and components.
The tracker argues that businesses should prepare for disruption while weighing the benefits of international sourcing and market access when considering changes to their supply chains.
