DESPITE A cyclical global downturn, SA growth prospects are still good, according to Standard Bank trade economist, Goolam Ballim.
He expects the global growth rate to be 3% this year - down from the 4.5% of 2000 and 4.2% in 1999.
But, he told FTW, this, tied in with the exchange rate against major currencies, will still support our export initiative while local demand is also firming.
The prospects are quite good and I see an improvement this year, although not any major change over 2000.
The way he sees it is, a lower rate of inflation - coupled with a more stable exchange rate - could lead to lower interest rates in the second quarter. This boosting the GDP (gross domestic product), Ballim added.
The recent decline in oil prices - again combined with a steadier rand - should see further petrol price falls in coming months, following the 10 cents/litre decline in early January. And, Ballim added, fuel costs are a major factor in international freight and trade.
Despite increased expenditure on telecommunications, gambling, and the slow growth in real incomes, he predicted, retail sales should improve this year.
A likely fall in lending rates during the second quarter should support sales further.
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