We very definitely see the container market increasing quite substantially in the first year or two - Kruger A FRUITFUL 1998 is the optimistic forecast from Safdal's commerical manager and perishable specialist, Jan Kruger, who sees big changes ahead for shipping lines in the newly deregulated perishable market.
Whereas in the past we dealt with a very small perishable export client base, this is all about to change. Instead of Unifruco, we'll be dealing with maybe 20 clients who will not only be local exporters but European buyers, says Kruger.
For the shipping line this will mean meeting the real clients behind the organisations who represented them before.
Although the PPECB still has a statutory mandate to arrange shipping space for perishable exporters, the client will now have more say in the matter.
On the shipping side we expect the role of the PPECB to change and diminish. But the question is how this will affect volumes on the route.
In the past, says Kruger, 20% of the deciduous fruit was shipped in containers and the balance in conventional reefer ships.
With the fragmentation of the market, many of the new importers will not have the volumes to charter a conventional ship so you will see a shift from conventional to containers. We very definitely see the container market increasing quite substantially in the first year or two.
Depending on how it develops after that, container volumes might not necessarily reduce, but as the new exporters produce more volume they may be able to get together and charter conventional ships on their own. Adding to the bullish outlook for volumes in the year ahead are predictions of a record avocado crop.
And if we get the volumes of deciduous and sub-tropical which are predicted now, it looks like a good year, says Kruger.
The deciduous industry is expecting to export 60 million cartons to Europe next year compared to 50 million this past year.
