South Africa’s maize industry entered the 2025/6 marketing year with expectations of robust export demand after producing a bumper crop of about 16.5 million tonnes. However, weaker than expected buying from key Asian markets curtailed exports during the season.
The industry had initially projected maize exports of about 2.4 million tonnes during the marketing year, which ended in April. The forecast was supported by a harvest that comfortably exceeded domestic demand of about 12 million tonnes, writes Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa chief economist, Wandile Sihlobo, in a recent blog.
“Such an ample harvest clearly showed that the exports would be significant, as it far surpassed South Africa’s domestic maize needs of about 12 million tonnes.
“However, by the time the 2025/26 marketing year ended in April, exports were only about two million tonnes, well below the industry's conservative export forecast of 2.4 million tonnes set at the start of the season,” Sihlobo said.
He attributed the weaker export performance largely to subdued demand from traditional Far East buyers, including Vietnam, Taiwan and South Korea.
“The typical buyers of South African maize in the Far East markets, such as Vietnam, Taiwan, and South Korea, were just not as active in the market.”
Instead, regional demand from Southern Africa dominated export activity during the season.
“In fact, Zimbabwe was the major buyer of South African maize, accounting for 39% of South Africa’s two million tonnes of maize exports,” said Sihlobo.
Zimbabwe imported about 780 770 tonnes of South African maize, including both white and yellow maize, largely due to reduced domestic production and growing demand.
Softer demand from Asian markets reflected abundant global maize supplies and lower-priced grain available elsewhere in the international market. “The reason for lower demand in some of South Africa’s typical export markets, particularly those in the Far East, was, amongst other things, ample supplies of more affordable maize in the world market,” he said.
Despite this, South Africa is entering the 2026/27 marketing year with another record crop.
The country’s 2025/26 production estimate, which feeds into the 2026/27 marketing year running, was forecast at 16.8 million tonnes, up 1% from the previous season and the largest maize harvest on record, Sihlobo said. “The large harvest is on the back of expanded planting area and expected high yields.”
The crop is expected to comprise about 9.1 million tonnes of white maize and 7.7 million tonnes of yellow maize.
The season again points to substantial exportable surpluses but Sihlobo believes demand conditions could improve in the months ahead as Southern Africa moves towards a possible El Niño weather cycle.
“This means that, in addition to Zimbabwe being the only significant buyer of South African maize, we may see more buyers of maize in the region.”
He added that firmer global maize prices could also revive demand from Far East importers.
“It is also likely that, with a possible slight increase in global maize prices in the coming months, we may see a return of Far East maize buyers.”
