Shippers are increasingly opting for shorter airfreight contracts and adjustable rates as market uncertainty makes longer-term fixed-price commitments less attractive, according to Xeneta.
Contracts lasting three months or less accounted for 60% of new agreements starting in the third quarter of 2026, up from 25% a year earlier and 47% in the second quarter, the airfreight analytics company reported.
Three-month contracts alone represented 42% of new agreements, compared with 16% a year earlier. The share of 12-month contracts fell from 40% to 25%, while agreements exceeding a year accounted for just 3%.
Shippers were increasingly looking for pricing mechanisms that allowed a base rate to adjust as market conditions changed, said Xeneta chief airfreight officer Niall van de Wouw.
“There is a high degree of realism in the way shippers are approaching the market. There remains a lot of instability and that’s making it almost impossible for shippers to make long-term capacity deals without having T&Cs in place to deal with these volatile conditions,” he said.
“A one-year fixed rate deal doesn’t fit the current conditions. Shippers are looking to build mechanisms which add flexibility to their commercial relationships with forwarders, and which will help to ensure they hold across the year.”
The shift in contracting comes as airfreight demand continues to grow faster than available capacity.
Global air cargo volumes increased by 6% year on year in September, following growth of 6% in August and 5% in July, according to Xeneta. Capacity rose by 2% in September after remaining flat in the preceding two months.
Xeneta’s dynamic load factor, which measures capacity utilisation using both cargo volume and weight, increased by two percentage points to 62%.
Global spot rates, valid for up to one month, averaged $3.10/kg in September, up 27% year on year and 2% month on month.
Xeneta attributed the monthly increase to seasonal firming towards the end of the third quarter and higher jet fuel prices linked to continuing tensions in the Middle East.
Most major trade lanes recorded monthly rate increases. Northeast Asia–Europe rates rose by 5% to $4.74/kg, while Northeast Asia–North America rates increased by the same percentage to $6.03/kg. Transatlantic rates rose by 2% from Europe to North America and by 4% in the opposite direction.
Van de Wouw said shorter contracts were giving shippers time to negotiate pricing arrangements they considered fairer.
“The high percentage of short-term, three-month deals we are recording is one of the current mechanisms shippers are using while they take time to negotiate what they see as a fairer way to buy capacity.”
He argued that adjustments should be based on the all-in rates airlines charged forwarders, rather than relying solely on fuel surcharges.
Despite sustained demand growth, Xeneta has not detected clear signs of a strong year-end peak season. Its outlook for the final quarter remains muted, with global air cargo demand on course to grow by around 4% in 2026.
Disruption to ocean freight remained a potential source of additional air cargo demand, although van de Wouw said a shift from sea to air was not yet evident in September’s data.
