Global dry-bulk shipping is expected to face a challenging year in 2026, as weak demand for traditional commodities coincides with fleet expansion, placing pressure on freight rates and second-hand vessel values.
Analysts from the Baltic and International Maritime Council (Bimco), the world’s largest shipowners’ association, say that shipments of coal and iron ore likely to stagnate or decline.
Traditionally, these commodities are the backbone of the bulk sea sector.
Iron ore volumes are expected to remain flat, with sluggish steel demand in China, influenced by the property market slowdown and broader economic weakness, limiting the need for imported ore.
Coal exports, meanwhile, are projected to decrease by as much as 2% in 2026, following a 2-3% decline in 2025, precipitated by countries shifting to renewable energy.
Domestic production increases in key markets such as China and India are also driving the sector down, Maritime Professional and Container News has reported.
Overall, cargo demand growth for 2026 is anticipated to be modest and not expected to exceed 2%.
On the supply side, Bimco forecasts that deliveries of new bulkers will expand the global fleet by 2-3% in 2026, particularly in the Panamax and Supramax.
This growth could exacerbate oversupply concerns, further depressing freight rates and second-hand ship values. Operators may continue to slow sailing speeds to save fuel, partially mitigating the oversupply, but not eliminating it entirely, MarineLink has reported.
The impact is expected to vary across vessel classes.
Panamax and Supramax carriers, which transport large volumes of coal, are likely to face the greatest pressure, while Capesize vessels may fare slightly better due to slower fleet growth and longer-haul routes.
Some stabilising factors may provide partial relief.
Analysts highlight the potential for growth in minor-bulk trades, including grains, fertilisers, and non-iron ore minerals, which could offset some of the weakness in coal and iron ore shipments. Fleet consolidation through the scrapping of older vessels may also help rebalance supply and demand.
Nevertheless, the sector remains vulnerable to structural changes in energy consumption, slower global economic growth, and trade policy uncertainties, Filipe Gouveia, Bimco’s shipping analysis manager, has said.
“We expect that the dry bulk market’s supply-demand balance will weaken in both 2025 and 2026,” he told MarineLog.
Shipowners and operators are being advised to prepare for a period of adjustment rather than growth, where efficiency, cost control, and diversification away from traditional bulk commodities will be critical to navigating the market successfully.
