South Africa’s aviation sector currently has sufficient jet fuel stocks to meet demand for about three weeks, but industry warns that infrastructure constraints in the fuel supply chain could pose risks if geopolitical tensions affecting crude oil supply persist.
Speaking during a panel discussion on infrastructure, investment and innovation at the Board of Airline Representatives of South Africa Aviation Summit in KwaZulu-Natal last week, Siganeko Magafela, executive director of the Fuel Industry Association of South Africa (Fiasa), said current jet fuel stocks remained adequate.
“We currently have no shortage in terms of supply,” he said, adding that existing stocks would take more than three weeks to be depleted.
However, Magafela said the greater vulnerability lay in crude oil supply, which determines refinery output.
“We are in a delicate situation. If this crisis continues beyond two weeks, then we need to do something as a country.”
South Africa’s aviation fuel supply has become increasingly reliant on imports following the closure of several domestic refineries between 2020 and 2022. OR Tambo International Airport is currently supplied from two sources – Natref and imported fuel delivered via Durban.
Magafela said the supply chain had been affected by infrastructure limitations in the fuel distribution network.
“When those refineries went down, we realised that the new pipeline that Transnet built was not linked to the refinery infrastructure,” he said.
As a result, imported fuel is sometimes transferred from vessels into the pipeline system via port terminals. Magafela noted that Durban did not have sufficient storage capacity to hold buffer stocks to supply OR Tambo.
The multi-product Transnet pipeline also requires other fuel grades to move products through the system, which has created further operational constraints.
“You need other grades to be able to push the product through the pipeline, and currently we are really limping when it comes to the other grades,” Magafela said.
Industry players are working to increase storage capacity to improve resilience. Magafela said that current terminal storage provided about 10 days’ capacity, with plans to expand this to roughly 12 to 13 days.
He warned that the system could face greater pressure if refinery supply was disrupted.
“If Natref goes down, then OR Tambo becomes exposed,” he said.
Magafela said contingency measures could include drawing on crude reserves stored at Saldanha Bay to support refinery operations if needed, although discussions with government had not yet begun.
