Next steps after rules of origin agreements concluded

Having completed complicated negotiations on AfCFTA rules of origin (RoO), the focus has moved to making the rules usable, uniformly administered and commercially attractive across national customs systems, according to a March 2026 official update by the South African Department of Trade, Industry and Competition (dtic). According to the AfCFTA Rules of Origin Manual, the system uses a hybrid framework of general and product-specific rules based on the Harmonized System classification. Depending on the product, qualification may be determined through: • A specific manufacturing or processing operation • A change in tariff heading (CTH) • A change in tariff subheading (CTSH) • A minimum value-added requirement. • A maximum percentage of non-originating materials. For example, the AfCFTA manual indicates that pasta can qualify where the value added exceeds 40% of the ex-works price, while certain boilers may qualify where non-originating materials do not exceed 60% of the ex-works price. The framework also provides for continental cumulation, under which originating materials from other AfCFTA state parties can generally be incorporated into production, subject to the applicable conditions. Proof of origin is normally provided through an AfCFTA Certificate of Origin, while authorised exporters may use an origin declaration. The sticking points up to recently were the RoO on automotive products, clothing and textiles. “The AfCFTA’s 40% African content threshold will disproportionately benefit countries with mature automotive ecosystems, with South Africa and Morocco positioned as the primary near-term winners,” according to BMI. In its analysis of the automotive agreement, BMI says it “is a net positive for the continent’s integration agenda, providing a practical framework for tariff preferences to translate into genuine trade flows. “Over time, this should support higher intra-African automotive trade, stronger industrialisation outcomes through supplier localisation and improved investment confidence as firms can plan production and sourcing against a single, predictable rulebook rather than fragmented national regimes. “That said, execution risks remain material; gains are likely to concentrate in established hubs, compliance and documentation requirements may limit uptake among smaller firms, and structural constraints such as porous borders, grey-market channels, low consumer purchasing power and organised used-vehicle lobby groups will continue to slow the expansion of new-vehicle demand and formal trade. “In our base case scenario, we forecast that Africa’s vehicle production will rise by 6.4% in 2026, with output reaching 1.5 million units. By 2035, we forecast Africa’s total vehicle production output will reach a peak of around 2.2m units”. ER