Economists are predicting that the re-escalation of the US-China trade war could lead to a global recession in less than a year. Quoted by Bloomberg, chief economist and global head of economics at Morgan Stanley, Chetan Ahya, said a recession could begin in as soon as nine months if President Donald Trump pushed to impose 25% tariffs on an additional $300 billion of Chinese exports and China retaliated with its own countermeasures. Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson however points out that with all the attention on US-China trade talks, people have failed to acknowledge several other negative data points. “These have led economists to reduce their second quarter US GDP forecast to 0.6%, the weakest since the fourth quarter of 2015 and the last time we had an earnings recession.”
