Figures provide perspective on real CBS threat

Citrus Black Spot is a fungal disease which affects citrus plants throughout subtropical climates, including South Africa.

As with most statistics, context is what provides the necessary perspective – and Citrus Black Spot (CBS) is no exception.

The European Union (EU) notification system for plant health interceptions (Europhyt) report for October 2015 reveals three CBS interceptions for Argentina,  seven for Brazil, four for South Africa and 49  for Uruguay.

According to information released by the Citrus Growers’ Association (CGA), this brings the 2015 total to Argentina 17, Bangladesh one, Brazil 12, South Africa 15, Swaziland two and Uruguay 61.

To put this into perspective, the Southern Hemisphere Association of Fresh Fruit Exporters (SHAFFE) figures indicate Argentina exported 170 000 tons to the EU in 2015 (10 000 tons per interception), South Africa 700 000 tons (47 000 tons per interception) and Uruguay 55 000 tons (900 tons per interception). While SHAFFE does not have figures for Brazil, in 2013 and 2014 the average exports from Brazil to the EU were 20 000 tons. If the 2015 Brazilian exports to the EU were on average this would indicate 1 200 tons per interception.

A very different picture from the figures presented in isolation.

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