Exporters Western Cape (EWC) has called for an urgent senior diplomatic and trade mission to Washington, following the outcome of the United States mid-term elections, aiming to avert South Africa’s impending exclusion from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).
The push follows the US administration’s announcement on Monday, November 2, of its intention to terminate South Africa’s AGOA eligibility with effect from January 1, 2027.
EWC Chairman Terry Gale said on Thursday, November 5, that the political landscape in Washington shifted significantly following the election results, creating an opportunity for renewed engagement.
“The stunning Republican defeat in the United States mid-term elections has changed the political landscape in Washington. For South Africa, it creates an opportunity to mount an urgent diplomatic effort to avert its exclusion from AGOA,” Gale said.
With Democrats winning the House of Representatives and the Senate, Gale said waiting for the new Congress to take office on January 3 would be a “serious strategic mistake”, given that the exclusion was scheduled for January 1.
“Preventing an interruption in benefits therefore requires action before the new congressional majorities assume office,” he said.
Gale recommended that the proposed mission should carry a clear presidential mandate, supported by credible representatives of business, organised labour and the Government of National Unity. He said the delegation must arrive with practical proposals addressing Washington’s concerns regarding trade and investment barriers, corruption, national security and foreign policy.
“South Africa should seek precise, measurable requirements for continued eligibility, address substantiated concerns within its constitutional framework, and demonstrate how preserving the relationship serves American as well as South African interests,” Gale said.
Three potential scenarios
He outlined three potential scenarios for South Africa, starting with a negotiated reconsideration before January, under which an agreement addressing specific concerns could allow the administration to withdraw its intended exclusion.
The second is a congressional effort to protect or restore South Africa’s access through legislation.
“Democratic control creates an opportunity to pursue this but success will require more than sympathetic statements. Legislation would face Senate procedural hurdles and ordinarily require the President’s signature or sufficient support to override a veto. Republican allies would therefore remain essential,” he said.
The third is that exclusion will proceed despite these efforts.
“South Africa must simultaneously prepare targeted support for exposed industries, diversify export markets and continue pursuing a route back into the programme. Diplomatic optimism must be accompanied by economic preparation,” Gale said.
Automotive impact expected to be limited
Meanwhile the Automotive Business Council (NAAMSA) said the additional direct impact of the proposed AGOA exclusion on the automotive industry is expected to be limited.
The council noted that vehicle export volumes to the US have already declined substantially following the introduction of 25% Section 232 tariffs under the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 on imported vehicles from April 2025 and automotive parts from May 2025.
According to NAAMSA, vehicle exports to the US dropped by 83.2% from 24 682 units in 2024 to 4 136 in 2025. In 2024, the automotive sector accounted for 64% of South Africa’s total AGOA trade with the US, generating R28.6 billion in export revenue, with 24 681 vehicles exported under the programme.
The council said the proposed termination will not close the US market as exports will remain possible under the applicable US tariff regime. However, predictable and competitive market access remains essential.
NAAMSA noted the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition’s offer of support to industries that might be affected by these developments.
“NAAMSA will continue engaging with the department and other relevant stakeholders, drawing on this support where necessary. It will also provide industry evidence and economic analysis to inform ongoing trade discussions and support efforts towards a balanced and sustainable trade outcome,” the council said.
In 2025, the wider automotive sector accounted for 23.8% of domestic manufacturing output, contributed 5.2% to GDP and supported 498 000 jobs across the formal economy with total vehicle and component exports reaching a record R291 billion.
