European drought puts heat on supply chains

Europe’s 2026 drought has disrupted inland and global multimodal logistics, impacting all aspects of the logistics value chain, including inland shipping, trucking, rail, ports, inventory, freight rates and industrial production volumes. The extent of the disruption is a reminder that the resilience of a global supply chain is determined by its weakest inland link. A vessel can cross the Atlantic on schedule, arrive at Rotterdam on time and still fail to deliver its cargo because the Rhine is too shallow for the barge that was supposed to carry it the final 300 kilometres. The situation could get worse. A Maersk note to its clients reads: “There is a possibility that conditions may deteriorate to a point where barge transport is no longer operationally feasible.” Shippers are advised to plan for alternative transport modes. According to CLECAT (European Association for Forwarding, Transport, Logistics and Customs Services), barges are operating with substantially reduced loads. Industry reports indicate reductions of 20–60%, while some operators are carrying only around one-third of normal cargo, with operators introducing or increasing low- water charges. “Increasing volumes are being diverted to road transport. Market sources report growing congestion on the main access routes to the ports of Antwerp and Rotterdam, while container terminals are approaching or exceeding available storage capacity,” according to an association report. The impact is also being felt in port operations. Some inland terminals have reportedly introduced “drop one, pick one” arrangements for barge containers to prevent further yard congestion. Waiting times of 32 to 44 hours for deep-sea vessels and up to 72 hours for inland navigation have been reported, adding further delays throughout the supply chain. Rail is absorbing part of the diverted traffic, but available capacity remains limited. Additional demand is increasing pressure on rail terminals, requiring more complex operational planning and creating local congestion around key hubs. Industry sources indicate that substantial rainfall will be required before navigation conditions improve and low- water surcharges can be lifted. “Until then, shippers and logistics providers should expect continued operational constraints, longer transit times and increased transport costs across the region,” CLECAT warns. Disruptions could also become more regular. In its 2025 Annual Report, the Rhine Navigation Commission warns: “Under the influence of climate change, longer periods of drought and more extreme events are expected.” Shipping companies are advised to increase capacity as “more vessels will be needed in the case of low water to transport the same amount of cargo”. For global shipping companies, freight forwarders and cargo owners, the message is that the inland leg has to be treated as part of the ocean supply chain. “With bottlenecks remaining deeply entrenched, we must continue to invest in critical trade infrastructure and scale to keep delivering the best possible value to our customers,” Maersk chief executive Vincent Clerc said at the release of the company’s second quarter results. ER