The global air cargo market is on its way to double-digit volume growth this year after a 12% year-on-year jump in demand in May, according to the latest data analysis by Xeneta.Despite conservative, low single-digit industry growth forecasts at the end of last year, expectations have been boosted by extraordinary regional demand for cargo capacity during the first six months of the year. According to Xeneta’s chief airfreight officer, Niall van de Wouw, the global air cargo spot rate rose 9% year-on-year (y-o-y) in May to $2.58 per kg.“In terms of growth data, analysts sometimes say ‘once is an incident, twice is a coincidence, and three times is a pattern’. In the world of air cargo, there’s an undeniable pattern emerging. We can’t use the word ‘surprising’ any more. When we take a midterm view of the market, with these kinds of numbers, we may be on track for double-digit growth for the year. It is now a possible scenario,” he said.Data from the International Air Transport Association (Iata) points in the same direction. In its latest analysis, it found growth trajectories north of 19% in the Middle East South Asia (Mesa) and Asia Pacific markets. Iata’s figures for Africa, Europe, Central South America (CSA) and North America confirmed across-the-board growth in the airfreight sector for the first half of 2024, respectively increasing by 8%, 7%, 5% and 2%.In addition, WorldACD Market Data, an airfreight aggregator service, confirms the findings with its data showing an 11% increase in y-o-y airfreight for the second quarter.According to Van de Wouw, the airfreight market has adjusted well to the increase in capacity that airlines have delivered. He said the continuing disruptions in the Red Sea continued to impact well on the airfreight sector – so much so that the air cargo spot rate on the Middle East and Central Asia to Europe corridor had increased 110%.He said how companies currently saw the market, however, depended largely on the regions in which they were operating as spot rates from North America to China had fallen by 32%. The Transatlantic market also suffered, with the corridor experiencing freight rate declines in both the front and backhaul lanes.According to Van de Wouw, the overall outlook for airfreight remains positive for the last few months of the year and hopes are high for another year of bumper end-of-year volumes. With no end in sight to the Red Sea crisis, this might very well be the case, he said, as ongoing port congestion and wider disruption helps reduce the cost gap for shippers or forwarders contemplating a modal shift to air cargo.
