Global fertiliser trade volumes fell by almost 30% in the first four months of 2026, declining from 58 million tonnes to 41 million tonnes as conflict-related disruption in the Gulf region, export restrictions and market conditions weighed on trade flows.
The decline was reported in the Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) latest Food Outlook report, published on June 18. The organisation attributed the slowdown to a combination of factors, including farmers delaying purchases amid rising fertiliser prices and weaker crop prices, as well as export restrictions imposed by several major producing countries.
The FAO also highlighted disruption to trade through the Strait of Hormuz, describing the route as a critical corridor for global fertiliser supply chains. Countries in the Gulf region account for significant shares of global trade in urea, ammonia, phosphate fertilisers and sulphur.
Fertiliser prices rose sharply following the escalation of conflict in the region, with the FAO's fertiliser basket price increasing from about US$475 per tonne in February to around US$595 per tonne in May. More than one million tonnes of urea were stranded on vessels unable to leave Gulf ports during the period, the report states.
The findings follow recent industry warnings that disruption in and around the Strait of Hormuz could affect fertiliser availability and pricing. Earlier this month, Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo said the reopening of the waterway would be positive for South African agriculture ahead of the 2026/27 summer crop season, as lower fertiliser and fuel costs could help ease input costs.
While recent developments have raised hopes of a resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the FAO said recovery in fertiliser supply chains was expected to be "slow and uneven".
