Global container-shipping analysts are cautioning that 2026 is shaping up to be a difficult year for freight rates, as new vessel deliveries continue to outpace growth in cargo demand across major trade lanes.
In its latest market outlook, shipping analytics firm Xeneta forecasts that global container-ship capacity will expand by around 3.6% next year, while demand is expected to rise by only 3%.
Xeneta’s chief analyst, Peter Sand, says this imbalance is likely to keep the market under sustained downward pressure, particularly on the key east-west routes linking Asia, Europe and North America.
The sea intelligence platform expects global average spot freight rates to fall by roughly 25% next year, with long-term contract rates declining by about 10%.
The company said that, despite the broad downward trend, rate volatility was likely to persist as carriers adjusted capacity, repositioned vessels or altered schedules to respond to weak demand.
A similar warning has been issued by industry forecaster Drewry, whose latest data show heightened rate fluctuations going into 2026.
Drewry’s World Container Index rose 7% in early December 2025 to about US$1 927 for a 40-foot container, following several weeks of sharp declines – an indication of a fragile market struggling to find stability, analysts say.
The primary factor behind the expected rate slump is structural overcapacity. The global orderbook for new ships remains historically large, with many vessels ordered during the supply-chain turmoil of 2021-2022 now entering service.
Currently, demand growth is subdued, particularly on the transpacific trade, where US consumer spending and tariff policies have slowed import volumes.
Consequently, the market is facing a mismatch between available space and the cargo required to fill it, Drewry points out.
Analysts also highlight shifting trade patterns, with some manufacturers and retailers diversifying supply chains towards Southeast Asia, India and Latin America. While these emerging markets are growing, they are not expanding quickly enough to absorb the influx of new tonnage.
Despite the challenges for carriers, 2026 is expected to offer a more favourable environment for shippers and importers. Many forwarders and manufacturers are being advised to secure long-term contracts early, as carriers may be more willing to negotiate lower rates to protect vessel utilisation.
However, both Xeneta and Drewry warn that short-term disruptions, such as port congestion, geopolitical tensions or sudden shifts in demand, could still cause temporary price spikes.
This is forecast even within an overall declining market.
Industry observers said that an extended period of weak rates might place pressure on carrier profitability, potentially sparking further consolidation or strategic alliances within the sector.
While the baseline expectation for 2026 is a continued decline in freight rates, analysts stress that the outlook remains highly sensitive to global economic conditions and supply-chain disruptions.
