The demand for coal may be slimming down in Europe, India and China, but in South East Asia it’s increasing.
This is according to Rahul Sharan, lead research analyst for dry bulk at Drewry Maritime Research, who says that emerging consumers in South East Asia will salvage coal trade to a certain extent.
With countries around the globe looking to reduce carbon footprints, the demand for coal has been forecast to decrease drastically. Several countries in Europe were actively engaged in transitioning away from coal, said Sharan. In the UK and Italy coal is expected to be phased out by 2025, in the Netherlands by 2030, and India has announced plans to reduce its share of coal by at least 10% within the next five years. China, one of the largest importers of coal, also has a five-year plan to reduce electricity generated through the use of coal by at least 6%.
According to Sharan growth of coal imports has slowed in the last five years, with coal trade growing by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of just 1.1% between 2012 and 2017.
“Imports by major Asian importers (Taiwan, China, South Korea, India and Japan), which account for more than 60% of global imports, rose by 0.3% during this period, while during 2007 to 2012 these increased at a CAGR of 12%. Elsewhere EU imports declined steeply during 2012- 17, dampening the growth of global trade. While the EU is determined to phase out coal, the declining cost of renewables is making green technology a viable option for developing countries of Asia,” Sharan added.
But in Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam and Pakistan, coal consumption was rising steeply. “Increasing imports by these emerging consumers is providing support to coal trade. The combined coal imports of these countries increased at a CAGR of 9.9% between 2012 and 2017. In 2017, their total imports reached 91 million tonnes, equivalent to 11% of global trade and only 5% lower than EU imports.
Taking into account planned power projects, coal will dominate the energy mix in the next five to ten years in most of these countries.”
CAPTION
Coal has become the planet’s black sheep.
