Global air cargo demand fell 4.8% in March according to the latest data released by the International Air Transport Association (Iata).
Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTK), decreased by a similar 4.7% year-on-year.
The sharpest impact came from severe problems at major Gulf hubs due to the ongoing war in the Middle East.
Middle Eastern carriers recorded a massive 54.3% drop in demand and a 52.4% reduction in capacity, the weakest regional performance.
“Air cargo demand fell 4.8% in March compared with the previous year. This was mostly due to severe disruptions at major Gulf hubs due to war in the Middle East. The timing of the usual post-Lunar New Year slowdown also added to the decline,” said Iata director general, Willie Walsh.
He said underlying demand trends remained strong, while recent World Trade Organization and International Monetary Fund revisions to trade and GDP projections continued to see growth in 2026.
“Importantly, air cargo networks are providing the flexibility needed to support global supply chains as they adjust to geopolitical, tariff, and operational strains. All eyes are on fuel supply and price, which are expected to test the industry’s resilience in the coming months,” Walsh said.
Regional variations were pronounced. African airlines posted the strongest demand growth at 7%, despite a 4.6% capacity cut, achieving a load factor of 49.6%. Asia Pacific carriers grew 5.4% in demand with 5% more capacity.
European demand rose 2.2% against 4.2% capacity growth, while Latin American and Caribbean carriers saw 1.8% demand growth on 5.1% additional capacity. North American carriers experienced a mild 1.2% demand decline with capacity down 1.1%.
According to Iata, broader economic indicators remain supportive. Global industrial production grew 3.1% year-on-year in February, marking the 38th consecutive month of expansion, while global goods trade rose 8%.
Manufacturing sentiment remained in growth territory with a Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of 51.4 and new export orders PMI at 50.1.
However, fuel costs present a significant challenge. Jet fuel prices surged 106.6% year-on-year in March, alongside a 43.1% rise in crude oil prices and a 320% increase in refining margins.
According to Iata data, the Middle East accounted for 13.2% of industry CTK in 2025.
