New US visa restrictions targeting certain South African nationals do not pose an immediate threat to trade or the country’s access to the US market, according to trade specialists.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced the restrictions on September 15 amid continuing diplomatic tensions between Washington and Pretoria.
The policy applies to foreign nationals whom the US considers responsible for, or complicit in, implementing laws or policies that enable uncompensated land seizures, racial discrimination or the incitement of violence against minority groups. No affected individuals were named.
The announcement has prompted questions about whether pressure from Washington could extend to trade, investment and South Africa’s participation in the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa).
US ambassador to South Africa, L Brent Bozell III, warned that the visa restrictions were “only the first step”, according to Reuters.
However, the current measures did not amount to trade restrictions, said Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa chief economist Wandile Sihlobo.
“What Marco Rubio said was that they were selectively restricting visa access for certain people in political backgrounds. That has nothing to do with business and that has nothing to do with the economic interests of South Africa,” Sihlobo told Freight News.
He said the restrictions should be viewed as a diplomatic measure rather than an immediate threat to South African exports.
International trade specialist Donald MacKay of XA Global Trade Advisors also cautioned against drawing firm conclusions about the possible economic consequences.
“It’s very hard to evaluate any action out of the US at the moment because it appears to be somewhat random,” MacKay said.
He said it was too early to determine whether the visa policy would be followed by broader measures affecting trade.
However, the possibility of escalation could not be dismissed. The consequences would become more serious if the US introduced trade restrictions or sanctions, he added.
“I am not saying that there is zero probability that something happens,” MacKay said. “But I think we must not make the problem bigger than what it might be in reality.”
Neither the visa policy nor the accompanying US statement announced any changes to Agoa eligibility, tariffs or market access for South African goods.
The possibility of further action therefore remained a risk to monitor rather than an established trade threat, the specialists said.
