Trade expectations index confirms recovery next year

As emerging economies become more aggressive, South Africa cannot be complacent about its status as the gateway to the rest of Africa. “Coming out of this recession is not only about our economy. We need to be keenly aware and closely aligned with what’s happening on the continent in order to protect our position,” said Neren Rau, chief executive officer of the SA Chamber of Commerce and Industry, which co-hosted last week’s Transnet Port Terminals’ business-to-business breakfast in Johannesburg. And while the business confidence index is not performing as well as would have been hoped, sticking to the 83 level that was last seen in January 2003, the trade expectations index is more encouraging, says Rau. The August Trade Activity Index improved two points to 44 points in August 2009. “This tells us about business performance – and our prediction that recovery will follow in the first few months of next year is accurate. It looks six months into the future and firmly and strongly predicts recovery early next year.” It won’t be easy and it will be protracted, warns Rau. “But we need to change our mindset and become recovery-focused – we need to focus on opportunities rather than challenges and be more aggressive.”