South African tariff investigations take an average of 40 months to complete while the oldest outstanding case has been open for six years and four months, according to XA Global Trade Advisors’ ninth Import Duty Investigation Report.
The report warns that prolonged delays are undermining business confidence in the tariff investigation process and leaving applications unresolved for years.
Speaking during a webinar to launch the report, XA Global Trade Advisors CEO Donald MacKay said the absence of binding deadlines stalls investigations.
“The reality is there is no legal requirement to take a decision within a particular time frame or even a legal requirement to complete an investigation,” MacKay said.
He warned that decisions based on information submitted several years earlier could face legal challenges.
“The problem is serious when it takes an average of 40 months to complete a tariff investigation and the oldest open investigation is over six years old,” he said.
The oldest case was initiated at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Conditions have since changed substantially, MacKay said.
“So, if you were to take a decision on that case now, by its nature, your decision is almost always going to be irrational. That is going to create a situation where some companies are not going to be happy with that decision, whatever it may be, and will challenge it in court,” he said.
“There’s already a matter heading to court right now. In fact, papers are being served and the nub of the argument in that case is exactly this: that you cannot arrive at a rational decision on such old information.”
MacKay said seven investigations were concluded in 2026 under Trade, Industry and Competition Minister Parks Tau but longstanding cases continue to hold up the process.
According to the report, five open investigations began in 2020 and another nine in 2021. Together, these represent 47% of the outstanding cases and account for 80% of the total overdue time calculated by XA.
The report said private-sector applications for duty changes have fallen to record lows. XA attributed this to businesses’ growing reluctance to engage with a process that lacks predictable completion dates.
MacKay contrasted the deadlines imposed on businesses with the absence of equivalent binding deadlines for authorities. He said respondents generally have four weeks to comment on tariff investigations, with a possible 14-day extension, while decisions could remain outstanding for years.
The report cited a groundnut tariff application that was pending for 50 months before the applicant ceased operations.
XA said the International Trade Administration Commission (ITAC), the minister and the director-general of the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition are aware of the delays but the backlog remains unresolved.
The report also questioned the effectiveness of compulsory reciprocal agreements under which applicants make commitments relating to pricing, employment, investment, exports and training in exchange for tariff support.
MacKay argued that these agreements introduce secrecy, inconsistency and administrative burdens without demonstrating measurable economic benefits.
Supporting the criticism, the report cites a decline in fixed investment as a share of GDP from 18.6% in 2013 to 13.9% alongside an increase in unemployment from 22.8% in 2008 to 31.9% in 2025. These broader trends do not, on their own, establish the effect of reciprocal agreements.
The report also raises concerns about the transparency of agreements between individual companies and government.
“ITAC and the minister need to earn back the trust of the businesses who most need their assistance. It doesn’t matter how impressive your policy, if your process is unpredictable and slow, the policy will fail,” the report states.
MacKay called for decisions on unopposed duty applications, binding deadlines for completing investigations and the introduction of sunset clauses.
“The tariff tool only works if business trusts the process. Right now there’s every indication that that is not the case,” he said.
