Strategist sees positive outlook for freight industry

The freight industry is on a roll. South African strategist Chantel Ilbury puts it in the ‘Fast Forward’ paradigm, one of four that she and Clem Sunter have coined in their scenario planning. “There are three other paradigms that the sector can move to – gridlocked, stalling and running on empty. At this stage we believe the future scenario for the freight sector is in the fast forward paradigm,” she said. But she warned the country’s freight forwarders at the annual South African Association of Freight Forwarders (Saaff) conference in Cape Town last week that the industry would have to work closely with government to stay in the top ranks. “If government becomes less effective in terms of the services they offer – such as the ports and railways – you could see the freight sector moving to the running-on-empty scenario.” She said government’s commitment to investing heavily in infrastructure that would allow the freight sector to continue offering services of global standards was a positive influence. “At present you have an incredibly competitive and efficient industry that has good working relationships with government. This is something that must continue should you want to stay in this paradigm.” She said South Africa itself was placed in the ‘Premier League’ scenario, but some flags to watch that could lead to the country being downgraded to the ‘Second Division’ was youth unemployment, the implementation of a media tribunal, nationalisation or the clumsy handling of the implementation of more taxes on the country’s tax payers such as the national health plan. “In South Africa we have two uncertainties to watch – the first being our competitiveness in relation to the rest of the world and the second social cohesion. If we are more cohesive, we are moving towards an internal harmony scenario that is positive for all.” Ilbury said the country however needed to continue focusing on several important aspects to ensure it did not fall from the Premier league where it went from number 37 in 2006 to number 52 in 2011. “To increase our rating we need to promote the spirit of entrepreneurship, and develop a strong work ethic along with good quality of education. We also need a high rate of savings, adequate infrastructure to support a high growth economy and to transform ourselves to being an export-orientated global player that supplies goods and or services to foreign markets that they can’t get elsewhere.” Ilbury said a dual logic economy that is attractive to foreign investors was the quality of a winning nation. “The world itself is facing a scenario of hard times for the next five to ten years, but we in South Africa have a major opportunity to improve the role we play as economic power is shifting to the East and to emerging markets.”