The storm has begun ... as predicted

The rand has cut loose from
its range-trading to hit a
three-and-a-half-year high
of 8.9968 on 8 October 2012
– and in so doing entered
our forecast target of above
8.80 (given in last month’s
column).
And, of course, as
usual, economists and
financial news reporters
were scurrying around to
find all sorts of reasons to
justify this current move:
the nationwide transport
strike... continuing mine
strikes following Marikana
...Moody's downgrade of the
banks ...Amplats firing 12000
workers
The funny thing is, if the
rand had moved stronger,
they would have used
the same reasons, with
the opposite spin on it:
Investors shrug off Moody's
downgrade… Rand rallies as
investors pin faith in mining
sector. And so on.
This is classic looking-back
economist logic, and while it
may help put some reasoning
to the rand's collapse, it does
nothing for telling you before
the fact what was going to
happen... or better still, where
to now?
By contrast, the chart that
we showed in last month’s
column gave us a clear
picture of where the market
was going ... long before the
fact.
This Medium Term
target was first published
back on 16 July 2012 – a
FULL MONTH before the
Marikana massacre.
This month’s chart shows
this “before and after”
together with more recent
forecasts issued in September
– shortly before the rand took
off.
Before Moody’s
downgrade of the banks,
before the nationwide strike
and before Amplats fired
their workers.
That is the power of the
Elliott Wave Principle,
and this technology which
enables us to predict future
movements ahead of time,
based on law-abiding patterns
of mass investor sentiment
and human psychology…
giving you objective,
scientific-based forecasts that
allow you to ignore all the
noise and plan your business
and forex transactions with
over 80% certainty upfront...
instead of regret at what
might have been – after the
fact.
The future of the rand
remains bleak with a move
above 9.00 expected over
coming months. See our
video update at www.
ForexForecasts.co.za/go/
ZAROutlook for more details.
● James Paynter is head
market analyst with Dynamic
Outcomes, a specialist market
analysis company which
has provided forecasts on
the rand (and other currency
and commodity markets) to
local and international clients
since 2005, with an average
accuracy of over 80%.
CAPTION
a regular monthly column by james Paynter