Shifting trade patters cushion Africa

A shift in trade away from the former colonial powers to the emerging giants is protecting African countries from the global downturn. “China, India and Brazil are consuming more and more of Africa’s oil, commodities and manufactured goods,” says the African Economic Outlook 2013. Produced annually by the African Development Bank, the OECD Development Centre, the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) and the UN Development Programme (UNDP), the report describes African economic prospects for 2013 and 2014 as “promising”. Africa’s economy is projected to grow by 4.8% in 2013 and accelerate further to 5.3% in 2014. From 2000 to 2011, Africa’s exports almost quadrupled in value, from US$148.6bn a year to US$581.8bn, according to UN Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad) figures. European Union and the United States’ share of African exports fell from 47% in 2000 to 33% in 2011 in the case of Europe and from 17% to 10% for the United States. In contrast, China increased its share of African exports from 3.2% in 2000 to 13% in 2011; India from 2.8% to 6%; Brazil from 2% to 3% and the Russian Federation from 0.2% to 0.3%. However, despite this diversification, African exports are still vulnerable to Europe’s debt crisis, which the report warns “could constrain Africa’s exports even more”. Risks on the African continent include continued political instability in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, as well as unrest in Mali and Sudan. The report argues that African countries must tap into their natural resource wealth to accelerate the pace of growth and ensure the process can benefit ordinary Africans.