SA’s total container market up by 7% for H1

The total South African container market (import plus export) grew by 7% year-over-year in the first half of 2015,  according to the Maersk Trade Report South Africa: Second Quarter 2015, released this week.

Matthew Conroy, trade manager of Maersk Line Southern Africa, said in a statement that this growth was in stark contrast to poor economic fundamentals which South Africa was currently experiencing, such as low consumer confidence and slow GDP growth. “Most of this growth can be attributed to imports into South Africa which have risen by 11% year-over-year. Specifically, there has been a 15% increase in imports of clothing and household goods, which are predominantly sourced from Asia,” he said.

Conroy added that although this was a “significant and unexpected increase”, when taking into consideration the market decline experienced in the first half of 2014, it was important to note that the total import market size was only now back to the size it was in the first half of 2013. “The growth is therefore more of an economic rebound, as opposed to consistent economic growth,” he said.

According to Jonathan Horn, managing director of Maersk Line in southern Africa, in terms of exports, the local market has grown approximately 2%. “The dry container export market, which consists mostly of mineral commodities, has seen virtually no growth as a result of lower commodity prices and China’s slowing GDP growth. It is also likely this trend will continue and there will be less commodity consumption for the rest of 2015, unless China’s growth improves.”

Horn says that in contrast to the dry market, the refrigerated export market has grown locally by 10%. “This is largely due to the fact that South Africa experienced better weather and crops of apples, pears and grapes this year, whereas in the first half of 2014 crops were very poor due to various weather-related incidents.”

Conroy said outlook for the second half of 2015 was positive, albeit not as positive as the growth witnessed in the first half of the year. “It is predicted that the import market will experience a steady uptick, with expected growth ranging from 1-2% year over year, mainly due to strong performance during the second half of 2014, which set the bar very high for 2015.

“In order to see higher import growth, we need to see healthier economic fundamentals at play, specifically a higher level of consumer confidence, bearing in mind that the majority of imports are consumable in nature, such as clothing and household goods.”