SA on shaky ground, warns Sunter

South Africa has in recent months increased its chances of losing its premier league position, according to worldrenowned scenario planner Clem Sunter. Speaking at the South African Association of Freight Forwarders Congress in Ekurhuleni recently, Sunter said the probability of South Africa losing its premier division role had increased by 40-50% in the past few months compared to the 30% probability he awarded it the same time last year. “There are some positives that could keep us in the premier league – and those include the economy not doing too badly in the first quarter of this year, with growth of 4.8%, as well as the banks being in a good state.” He said while it was definitely better to be South Africa in Africa than Germany in Europe, he warned that the country had now more than ever increased its chances of joining the ranks of a second-division or even failed-state scenario. “There are four warning flags to watch out for that will negatively affect the South African scenario. They are: nationalisation, land grabs, a media tribunal and the clumsy implementation of national health insurance.” He said while South Africa in all probability would maintain its current position in the premier league, it was important that business remain cognisant of the possibilities and place itself in a position to strategically address the changing environment.