Rising seafreight volumes run contrary to global trend

The SA seafreight market
is getting close to the peak
of the peak, according
to a forwarding industry
spokesman, speaking on
October 7.
“In the January to August
period, the Durban port stats
(for about 80% of the SA
total) showed that Durban’s
containerised cargo volumes
in 2010 were well up on the
same period in 2009 – but
still behind the first eightmonth
total for 2008,” Dave
Watts, maritime consultant
of the SA Association of
Freight Forwarders (Saaff),
told FTW.
The port handled
1.63-million TEUs in that
period; 1.52-m in 2009;
but 1.74-m in 2008. That’s
the running equivalent of
203 750/month.
However, the Transnet
National Ports Authority
(TNPA) port figures for
September (just released)
show that the total jumped
to 232 411 in the month –
some 28 661 TEUs/month
more than the 8-month
running average.
“And,” said Watts, “the
expectations yesterday
(October 6) for the
following eight days was for
45 000-TEUs compared to
last year’s Oct 6 expectation
of 34 000. That’s a total of
about 11 000 more – or
1 375-a-day more – than a
year ago.”
It’s also utterly contrary to
the global feelings.
The container shipping
industry should brace itself
for a weaker-than-expected
fourth quarter, as inventory
re-stocking and empty
container movements slow,
according to the “Counting
Containers” report from
international analysts, the
Macquarie Group.
The report explains that
fourth-quarter volumes are
normally around 0.7% up
on the third quarter, but
this year the analyst said it
expected them to be lower.
“We estimate that global
container throughput
increased by 16%, year-onyear,
in the third quarter
2010,” said the Macquarie
report, “and will be 12%
up year-on-year in the
fourth.”
“But these feelings must
mostly relate to Far East-
Europe and Far East-North
America trades, because
they certainly don’t apply
to the Far East-SA route,”
said a spokesman for a Far
Eastern carrier.
He reckoned that SA
exports were marginally
lower in September, but
imports were 13.6% up
month-on-month.
Ron Frick, MD of DAL
Agency, agreed when
interviewed about trade on
the Europe-SA sea route.
“I’m as bullish as ever,”
he told FTW.
Exports from SA, he
added, are easing off a little
– but that’s a usual seasonal
event.
“But our southbound ships
are all booked a week in
advance,” Frick said.