Things are not going to get easier for rail in South Africa, according to transport economist Andrew Marsay, writing for FTW from his new home in Newcastle in the UK. On the contrary, the road transport sector is set to become even more competitive as new technologies emerge, says Marsay. “Electric freight vehicles have already been successfully trialled elsewhere and, although involving high initial outlay, could lead to lower life-cycle costs for those companies able to raise the necessary investment. “Paul Jorgensen’s work on performance-based standards could lead to larger, yet safer, lower-cost rigs. Vehicle platooning and remote controlling could also improve distributional reliability." Even with the radical institutional restructuring that has taken place here in the UK, the road vs rail issue has not disappeared, says Marsay. “There are still too many trucks on the road. And, while rail freight is more efficient than it was prior to the 1990s restructuring, there has been little change in its market share. “Nevertheless, if rail had not taken steps to respond to changed market expectations in the mid1990s, the situation could very easily have become ALL trucks and NO rail!" The encouraging thing about recent political events in South Africa is the growing acceptance that it takes more than large slugs of state investment to make the economy grow and create employment, in his view. “State owned enterprises are not generally equipped to distinguish between viable and non-viable investments. Government’s role should be the setting of regulatory frameworks that are mandated to steer industry players to economically sustainable investment decisions." South Africa’s world leading bulk export lines could be even greater if they were linked more closely to an improved regulatory framework for mining, “Investment in the country’s ports could be accelerated at the stroke of a pen if competition were invited in the lucrative container and automotive trades. In the container rail sector the Department of Transport’s Interim Rail Economic Regulatory Capability (IRERC) is taking steps to help Transnet accept that some rail investments make sense, and some don’t. “If all of these steps are pursued vigorously, South Africa’s transport sector could contribute hugely to new economic growth, and the inland freight sector could yet emulate the UK – in preventing the doomsday scenario of ALL trucks and NO rail!"
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The road transport sector is set to become even more competitive as new technologies emerge. – Andrew Marsay
