According to US-based Hackett Associates, the international maritime industry consultancy, the North European economy is showing signs of remaining in the doldrums with further declining volumes into the first half of 2016.
“At best we are facing a mild recession, at worst something more severe as capacity continues to sharply outpace demand,” it added.
The North Europe Global Port model of fundamental economic indicators all point to a lack of growth and many of them to a further decline in economic activity, all of which will reduce the volume of trade.
When the figures for 2015 are finalised, Hackett forecasts that total imports into Europe can be expected to decrease by 3.2%, with at least a 4% slide anticipated in North Europe. The six North Range ports are projected to post a 4.4% decrease in incoming volumes, while loaded outgoing volumes are forecast to post a 3.1% slide. The total handled volume is forecast to dip by 2.3%.
And its crystal ball gaze for the coming six months projects a 4.1% decrease in total moves across the North Range, compared to a 5.2% decrease over the same period of the past year. Loaded incoming containers are projected to decrease by 4.5% in the coming six months versus the previous six months, compared to a 6% drop in the previous year.
