November trade deficit hits R8bn mark

The November 2011 trade statistics from the SA Revenue Service (Sars), released during the festive season, showed the unhappy news that SA had suffered a trade deficit of R8 billion. This was compared to a surplus of R8.4bn for November 2010. But at least it was a drop from the deficit of R9.6bn in October 2011 – a 10-month peak and well above expectations. It was triggered by an increase in exports of R7.3bn (11.9%) to R68.5bn, but also an increase in imports of R5.7bn (8.1%) to R76.5bn – largely the result of a surge in oil imports. The size of the November deficit was a surprise because it normally shrinks considerably as imports taper off ahead of the year-end, and it suggests that the trade gap for the last quarter looks set to be much higher than was expected. The Sars data also showed more bad tidings, in that the first 11 months of 2011 recorded a cumulative trade deficit of R21.3bn – which compared rather poorly with a shortfall of R5.3bn in the same period of 2010. The figures suggest that SA’s deficit on the current account, its broadest measure of trade in goods and services, may be larger than expected for the full year. SA still maintained its trade surplus with Africa – although it narrowed to R4.8bn from R6.1bn in October. But the ongoing surpluses in the African market throughout the year have helped somewhat in easing the pain of deficits with other regions.