High-powered handshakes and headlines about intraregional trade are not enough to ensure that South Africa reaps the benefits of agreements such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), says trade research analyst, Duncan Bonnett. “We need cogent policy about Africa that will hopefully galvanise our position towards opening up certain markets that have been closed to South African business,” the Africa House director told FTW. These include countries such as Ivory Coast, Cameroon and Niger – to name just a few on the western side of the continent. Should progressive decision-making not be forthcoming, rapidly emerging markets like Uganda and Kenya could remain mostly closed to trade from South Africa. Bonnett added that it was encouraging to see that efforts to bring Angola on line with the Southern African Development Community’s Trade Protocol had finally succeeded. “We haven’t been doing much business with that country,” Bonnett said, despite Deputy Minister for Trade and Industry, Bulelani Magwanishe, making pronouncements to the contrary. Speaking from Luanda after Angola signed the protocol last week, a beaming Magwanishe said: “The Angolan market is one of South Africa’s fastest growing export destinations in SADC.” He added that Angola’s accession to the SADC Trade Protocol would not only improve trade and enhance harmonisation of customs processes, but it would also contribute to regional integration efforts. But dotting the i’s and crossing the t’s on the AfCFTA and related agreements alone would not prise open the door to better business, Bonnett stressed. Illustrating his point that there was a perceived lack of policy thinking, he mentioned that a country like India, for example, had a minister for Africa. “We don’t have that.” Commenting on uncertainty regarding the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) which allows for duty-free access for exports to the US from South Africa and the majority of sub-Saharan countries, Bonnett stressed that Agoa and the AfCFTA were two different things. “Agoa may or may not be renewed come 2025 and the US is looking at reciprocity. At the moment America’s perception is that there’s no reciprocity. “Tariff-free trading across Africa gives us the opportunity to become less reliant on the outside world. But it doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be aware of the bull in the china shop,” Bonnett said, referring to US President Donald Trump. “We should be prepared for the worst possible situation,” he warned.
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We need cogent policy about Africa that will galvanise our position towards opening up markets that have been closed to SA business. – Duncan Bonnett
