Jet fuel will be main victim of brewing conflict

Alan Peat IT IS the brewing conflict between the US and Iraq which will dictate the world's oil fortunes for the coming few months, according to Allan Doble, external relations manager for oil company, BP. "It's the names George W Bush and Saddam Hussein that are the driving force," he told FTW. "It's this possible war that's pushing things up, with crude breaking above US$28.50 a barrel in the last week of September." This will overshadow the annual effect of the boom in heating oil demand during the Northern Hemisphere winter if the latest moves in the saga don't dampen the war talk. Jet fuel would be the first, and main victim of the conflict, said Doble. "As soon as there's war, jet fuel will rocket." But with the issue now on the agenda at the United Nations, it's more of an international concern, he added. The Iraqis' re-acceptance of arms investigators might also help to mellow things. On the landside, SA will escape a major part of the effect of the winter heating oil demand, according to Doble. "We're long on diesel in this country," he said. "Even export it. so that demand won't affect us." In the meantime, the decision of the latest meeting of the oil and petroleum exporting countries (Opec) - not to increase output - is pressing prices upwards."That's what it's intended to do," said Doble.