Iata revises forecasts down

The last air cargo market
survey and forecast from the
International Air Transport
Association (Iata) has proven
to be an over-optimistic
assessment, with the industry
now facing an unprecedented
fall in demand and revenues.
“Forecasts made in
December, predicting a 5% fall
in volumes and 9% revenue
decline during 2009,” said the
association, “now look highly
optimistic, given January freight
tonne kilometres (FTK) levels
of minus 23.2%.
“Economic forecasts are now
predicting the deepest recession
since the 1930s.”
Capacity is being cut and fuel
prices have fallen but efforts to
shrink the industry’s cost base
are struggling to keep pace with
the contraction in revenues,
according to Iata.
“Recovery is not yet
in sight,” was its gloomy
prediction.
Cargo profitability, at least
in the US, held up surprisingly
well during 2008.
“But,” said Iata, “with
revenues collapsing, the outlook
is very poor. Heads of cargo
expect substantial falls ahead for
both freight tonnes and yields.”