The last air cargo market survey and forecast from the International Air Transport Association (Iata) has proven to be an over-optimistic assessment, with the industry now facing an unprecedented fall in demand and revenues. “Forecasts made in December, predicting a 5% fall in volumes and 9% revenue decline during 2009,” said the association, “now look highly optimistic, given January freight tonne kilometres (FTK) levels of minus 23.2%. “Economic forecasts are now predicting the deepest recession since the 1930s.” Capacity is being cut and fuel prices have fallen but efforts to shrink the industry’s cost base are struggling to keep pace with the contraction in revenues, according to Iata. “Recovery is not yet in sight,” was its gloomy prediction. Cargo profitability, at least in the US, held up surprisingly well during 2008. “But,” said Iata, “with revenues collapsing, the outlook is very poor. Heads of cargo expect substantial falls ahead for both freight tonnes and yields.”
