After two years of
devastating drought, this
promises to be a good year
for farmers, according to
Hamlet Hlomendlini, senior
economist at Agri SA.
This, he said, in light of
good rains that have fallen
over large parts of the
maize-producing areas since
October 2016.
“This has, to a greater
extent, encouraged planting
which already started in
October. In some parts of the
country, planting is in fact
complete and in some, maize
has started growing.
“Although still at the
early stage of the season,
the 2017 production outlook
is positive compared to the
2016 output.”
Some estimates suggest
that aggregate maize
output will reach 12 million
tonnes in the 2016/17
season. On average SA per
season produces 11.5m-
12m tonnes of maize
under normal weather
conditions. “However,” said
Hlomendlini, “in the wake
of the worst drought ever
recorded, it is a bit optimistic
to expect that maize output
will reach the roof of the
per-season average output.
A likely achievable figure
is between 11m and 11.5m
tonnes for the current
season. This will however
improve significantly in the
2017/18 season provided the
weather conditions remain
favourable.”
He also noted that livestock
farmers had already started
rebuilding their livestock
herds. “Although it will take up
to three years for some farmers
to fully build their herds,
improved weather conditions
bring about hope that pastures
will grow, water reservoirs will
be filled and no animal will die
helplessly in 2017.”
On the consumption side,
a good year for agriculture
means a good year for
consumers, according to
Hlomendlini. And usually,
a good agricultural year is
followed by a drop in food
prices.
“2017 is likely to bring about
lower food prices,” he said,
“provided that global shocks
like oil prices and other microeconomic
variables remain
favourable.”
INSERT
Drought’s devastating tol
In 2016, farmers’ debt with
SA banks climbed above R125
billion, the highest-ever debt
recorded
It is estimated that more
than 15 000 farmers (mostly
emerging commercial farmers)
surrendered their farms to
their financial institutions for
auctioning as they could no
longer afford
to make their
credit and loan
repayments.
