demand at the end of the year will find sea routes around the world overtonnaged, according to shipping industry analysts. This supply/demand imbalance has been pointed out by a well-placed source as an eventuality on the SA trade. But now, according to information released to FTW by an international shipping line on the SA trade, this concern is also being recognised on the global scene. The Paris-based shipping analysts, AXS Alphaliner, have reported that the global container fleet – just back into profitability after last year’s cargo drought – is facing a return to overcapacity in the coming 12 to 18 months. They are forecasting that the fourth quarter slowdown in cargo demand will likely continue into next year. AXS Alphaliner expects demand growth to fall from about 12% this year to 6%-8% in 2011. At the same time, the global fleet of container ships is expected to grow 9.6% next year. This is seen as the turning point. Although this year has shown strong fleet growth, the balance between supply and demand for container ships has returned to relative equilibrium after the global slowdown in 2009 resulted in a demand gap of more than 14%, according to AXS Alphaliner. But, if the idle fleet remains steady at current levels until the end of the year, it will bring the increase in active capacity to 22%. This supply surge has been almost matched by a growth in demand that has reached an average 17.3% for the major carriers so far this year. However, AXS Alphaliner predicts that slower demand growth in the second half will reduce full year growth to about 12%. Better balance may return in 2012, with the boxship fleet forecast to grow 7.7% while cargo demand is projected to increase 8.2%.
