‘Fourth quarter looks more promising’

An attempt by FTW to get freight and associated industry executives to crystal-ball-gaze the economic conditions for the fourth quarter of this year proved a daunting task. When questioned about what the fourth quarter would reveal, the general answer was that none of their expectations were based on hard fact, but rather on their feelings of where things were going – and possibly weighted by their hopes rather than statistically proven data. Luke Doig, senior manager for investment and economic services at Credit Guarantee Insurance Corporation (CGIC), said that – as expressed to FTW by optimistic soothsayers in the industry – an upturn in the fourth quarter was a “definite possibility”. This was “a hope”, he stressed, with “nothing concrete in the balance”. “It’s very difficult to find any distinct facts and figures that are evidence of an upturn. It’s still a finely balanced affair. I’m including this upswing in my present forecast – although it’s no certainty.” Pete Williams, MD of Safcor Panalpina, was equally unable to present any statistical support for his expectations. “I’m certainly hoping the de-stocking phase is close to an end,” he said. “Although whether that’s just wishful thinking on my part is difficult to say.” Picking the brains of Goolam Ballim, senior economist at Standard Bank, produced a similarly hopeful forecast. “The fourth quarter looks much more promising,” he told FTW. “Signs of the recovery will begin to show themselves. The “internal growth dynamics” are also showing the right signs, he added. “In the last three months of this year, the economy will have stabilised. And, although very moderate in extent, the recovery will have begun.”