Alan Peat
FEBRUARY EXPORTS set a new record the second historic high in three months, with December setting the previous best.
According to figures released to FTW by Standard Bank economist Goolam Ballim, the February figure of R15.77-billion was R2.163-bn above the figure for January - but only marginally higher than the R15.639-bn for December.
Turning to imports, Ballim said: In line with the expanding economy and higher inventory build-up, imports rose by R2.038-bn over January - to total R13.887-bn.
The net result is a merchandise trade surplus of R1.882-bn for February, following a R1.758-bn surplus in January.
The outlook for the current account of the balance of payments appears positive on the back of the trend, evident from the first two months of this year. During 1999 the cumulative trade balance for the same period was 36% lower at R2.347bn.
Following on a good start to the year - and aided by the rand's 5% depreciation against the US dollar since the start of the year - February exports were largely driven by a R937-million rise in shipments of precious and semi-precious metals, while machinery and electrical equipment exports rose R473-m. Hides & skins showed a R287-m rise, while vehicle exports rose by R263-m to R1.129-bn - following a decline of about R800-m in the three months to end-January.
The recent conclusion of the labour dispute at Volkswagen SA probably aided this rise, Ballim told FTW.
The R2.038-bn increase in imports was primarily due to a R1.461-bn rise in the mineral products category - where oil imports contribute more than half.
Despite the more than 20% decline in oil prices since early March, said Ballim, the mineral products component will, in all likelihood, remain high for several months.
After a decline of R772-m in December and January, imports of machinery fell by only R6-m in February. Said Ballim: This bottoming out suggests improved business confidence by local firms in anticipation of accelerating growth.
On the whole, February's trade report continues the good form established in January.
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