El Nino could affect global logistics

Trade patterns could once again be influenced by the recurrence of the El Niño phenomenon, which appears increasingly likely this year, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology. The probability of 2014 becoming an El Niño year is assessed at 65-70%. The El Niño phenomenon – a prolonged warming of the Equatorial Pacific that occurs every 3-4 years and lasts 12-18 months – alters global crop conditions, mainly in the southern hemisphere. A strong El-Nino would affect net grain importers the most. Yields during El Niño years could lead to production declines at a global level, it warns. The transport of both inputs and crops will be affected. The impact on the logistics sector serving the rapidly growing economies in Africa could extend beyond the movement of bulk foodstuffs into consumer goods. Rising incomes across the continent have resulted in a consumer boom, with freight companies kept busy transporting clothing, white goods and imported foodstuffs. Higher inflation, the loss of farming jobs and the cost of importing food will affect spending power.