Economic growth little affected by gulf

Economic and trade disruptions caused by the bombing of Iran by the United States and Israel seem to have had little effect on West Africa as a whole. In its latest assessment of prospects, the African Development Bank (AfDB) says economic growth, estimated at 4.8% in 2025, is projected to remain marginally unchanged at 4.7% in 2026 and slow to 4.5% in 2027. The subregion’s relative stability in growth in 2026 is attributable to robust agricultural output, deepening agro-processing value chains and sustained public investments in energy, logistics and transportation infrastructure. Increased global oil demand due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has boosted export revenues, accelerated economic growth and attracted investment. Two of the biggest projects are the Dangote Refinery in Nigeria, which is one of the world’s largest refineries, while Shell is investing $122 million in the Iseni Gas Project, a natural gas development in Nigeria’s Bayelsa state. Ghana is also benefiting from the renewed focus on non-gulf sources of oil and gas. In May, the country’s director of economics and local content at the Petroleum Commission, Kwaku Boateng, told the third Africa Energy Technology event that Ghana’s upstream industry was showing clear signs of recovery. “The industry is picking up, and we are seeing renewed attention from international players. Companies are beginning to recognise the long-term value and stability Ghana offers within the region,” he said. The region is also becoming a fintech hub, led by Nigeria. It is home to five unicorn companies with a valuation of over $1 billion: Flutterwave ($3bn), Opay ($2bn), Andela ($1.5bn), Moniepoint and Interswitch. Flutterwave is a global fintech company providing payment infrastructure to connect Africa to the global economy, while Opay is an online financial services platform, and Andela is a technology network and talent marketplace that connects top engineering talent, originally and mainly sourced from Nigeria, with leading companies worldwide. A unicorn is a privately held startup that has reached a valuation of $1bn or more. As a result of the oil boom and diversification into agriculture, tourism and fintech, projected growth in the region will be broad- based, with 10 of the 15 countries expected to grow by 5% or higher in 2026, according to the AfDB. Leader is Guinea, with growth projected to accelerate from 6.9% in 2025 to 9.3% in 2026 and 9.8% in 2027, driven by increased bauxite production and exports and public investments in mining infrastructure and electricity generation. Growth in Niger is projected at 6.6% in 2026 and 6.4% in 2027, underpinned by increased oil production, expanded pipeline infrastructure and greenfield developments in uranium production. In Benin, growth is projected at 6.6% in 2026 and 7.1% in 2027, supported by rising agricultural output from improved farmers’ access to inputs and extension services, investments in agro- processing and export value chains and increased tourism receipts. Growth in Nigeria, the region’s largest economy, is projected to increase marginally from an estimated 4% in 2025 to 4.1% in 2026, supported by increasing oil prices and production, growth in the services sector and increased public investment in electricity, transport and logistics. In 2027, growth is projected to decelerate to 3.7% due to anticipated easing of global oil prices. ER