Durban port stats reflect bottoming out of decline

An analysis of the Durban port figures for the year up to end-October displays the dismal story of the global slump, followed by an eventual bottoming out of the decline. But nothing, said analyst Dave Watts, KwaZulu Natal maritime adviser of the SA Association of Freight Forwarders (Saaff), for anyone to get ecstatic about. “If cargo movement is anything to go by,” he told FTW, “the Transnet National Ports Authority (TNPA) Durban cargo stats for October do not appear to indicate any material improvement in economic activity in South Africa.” The movement of import TEUs through the port for the period January to October this year was 578 605 – some 18.66% below the same period in 2008, which was also a period of recession last year. “Though this comes as no surprise to the shipping industry,” said Watts, “it does show a marginal improvement over the period January to June 2009 when the decline was 23.07%. “Imports still lag even 2007, when they stood at 701 510 for the same period.” Exports are slightly better, Watts reckons, if on-going conversion from breakbulk is not taken into account. “Shipped full” stood at 487 414 for the same 10-month period in 2009 against 584 007 in 2008 – 16.54% lower, and marginally (1.8%) more than the 478 403 in 2007. “Other cargo types have seen consistent declines since 2006,” he said. “And, though the global recession and conversion to containerisation are the most likely causes, the decline in breakbulk this year is nothing short of spectacular.” This is highlighted by the relative movement figures. Total breakbulk cargo (both import and export) stood at 4.07-million tons for the first ten-months of 2009. “This is a harsh comparison with the total for the same period of 2008, which was 6.34-m tons. “With only two-months of trade left, the annual drop in this type of tonnage may exceed 25% year-on-year. It is worth noting that in 2006 breakbulk cargo peaked at 7.9-m tons.” Dry bulk, on the other hand, has been relatively stable in recent years. “Though dry bulk has seen a decline from the heights of 2008 it does appear final volumes will be close to the average for the past few years,” said Watts. Dry bulk, being largely agricultural production and supplies, is reliant on weather conditions both in South Africa and abroad.