‘Don’t expect export miracles from weaker rand’

While the weaker rand will clearly offer significant competitive benefits to exporters, predictions of a volume boom are based more on misplaced enthusiasm than hard facts. “Hopefully the weaker rand will make SA produce more attractive than other suppliers, but to assume that it will increase the volumes is not correct – you need to take other factors into consideration,” says Deciduous Fruit Producers’ Trust CEO Anton Rabe. “A far more mature industry has evolved over the past couple of years that basically packs and ships on demand on fixed programmes. There’s very little speculation or opportunism in the sense that people send out a batch of product and hope for the best. If there is a bigger influx of produce because of the weaker rand it will be percentage points because the production planning can’t make quick switches within a season. “It could be that over a period of time you will see a trend moving in that direction, but in a specific season there’s not too much scope to make drastic changes.” It’s a view shared by Citrus Growers’ Association chairman Justin Chadwick who believes the tighter global economic climate could see citrus volumes decreasing as cash-strapped consumers cut back on luxuries – of which imported fruit is one. “Over the past few years we’ve exported large volumes of citrus and we are already at the limit of what the markets can take. The economic slowdown will impact heavily on demand and we believe it will offset the benefits of the weaker rand.” Chadwick believes the industry should be focusing on quality rather than quantity. “We have had a very difficult year this year with a number of quality issues coming to the fore. “The weaker rand does help with returns but we would rather see a stable and slightly stronger rand because short-term volatility makes it difficult to plan.” For both deciduous and citrus exporters, the traditional European markets remain the prime target. “Depending on the product, 65% to 80% of our volumes are moving to that theatre,” said Rabe, “although we have seen significant growth in the Russian and Middle Eastern markets. We are also living in hope with regard to India which is very attractive for us due to the closeness, but the tariffs are high which makes it a very difficult market to exploit at this stage.”