Copper production growth taking shape

Zambia is aiming to boost its annual copper output to one million tons this year – up from approximately 800 000 tons in 2024 – as the country intensifies efforts to position itself among the world’s leading copper producers. The ramp-up is part of a long-term strategy to revitalise the mining sector and attract sustained foreign investment. According to Duncan Bonnett, a partner at Africa House, Zambia has laid out an ambitious plan to grow copper production from around 700 000 tons in 2021/22 to three million tons by 2032/33 – more than tripling the size of its copper industry within a decade. “We’re seeing significant brownfield expansion from existing copper producers, both in mining and refining,” said Bonnett. “In addition, there’s a strong pipeline of greenfield project activity, not just in copper, but across the broader minerals sector as well.” While Zambia has struggled to meet its one-million-ton copper production target in recent years, signs are promising for a breakthrough in 2025. According to government figures, copper production rose by 30% year-on-year in the first quarter, reaching approximately 224 000 tons compared to 173 000 tons during the same period last year. “Mining remains the heartbeat of Zambia. It always has been and that is not changing,” said Bonnett, noting that significant reforms had taken place since President Hakainde Hichilema took office in 2021. “The country took a really hard look at what was going on — what they were doing, what they weren’t doing, and what needed to change to turn the tide and drive foreign investment.” He said President Hichilema and his administration had taken the time to understand why neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) was attracting substantial mining investment while Zambia was not. “Thanks to a thorough analysis, the country has been able to restructure its investment regulations,” said Bonnett. “They’ve implemented key reforms and guarantees, changing policy, legislation and regulatory frameworks. More importantly, they actively engaged with the industry to ensure they were meeting the needs of major mining houses.”As a result, many project pipelines that had previously stalled were revived, and the project sector has shown a strong recovery. He said that not only were existing copper producers investing in upgrades and expansions – both in mining and refining – but new players were also entering the market. “We are definitely seeing an increase in copper projects, and with the growing global demand for copper, Zambia is set to become a major international producer,” said Bonnett. Zambia is currently the second-largest copper producer on the African continent, only trailing the DRC.