South African exporters have been advised not to jump to alarmist conclusions now that principal Brexit proponent Boris Johnson has replaced Theresa May as prime minister of the UK. Trade analyst Catherine Grant Makokera told FTW she was not 100% convinced that there would be a Brexit come October 31. Moreover, she said for the time being only a handful of exports would be impacted by a hard Brexit. “The ideal of course is that we have a roll-over of the economic partnership agreement and trade goes on as normal. We’re pretty close to that.” The type of exports that would definitely be affected, were mainly from the agricultural and automotive sectors. She advised exporters to familiarise themselves with a list of 124 product types that the UK had released and that was available through the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition (dtic). Makokera added that there were a number of chemicalrelated products that were also on the list for potential tariffrelated increases. In the longer term the list of possible tariff-subjected products could go up to as many as 500 products, but that would mainly be niche exports like fertiliser. She also mentioned that of the anticipated products that could finally be exposed to British tariffs, only about 100 were exported from South Africa. For now, though, and of immediate importance, is that exporters focus on the list of 124 definite product types that will be affected by Brexit. Makokera also advised exporters to consider “nontariff-related issues like standards and customs requirements. Exporters need to figure out whether they will still be able to use the same customs documentation system or whether there will be a whole new system.” For the most part, she feels South African exporters shouldn’t be too worried. “If you’re exporting a fairly straightforward product where you are not part of a complex supply chain that has technical rules of origin and requirements, then you can probably get good advice from the dtic. “They have been engaging a lot with the UK and they have a lot of information to hand out about how the UK is intending to deal with Brexit.” She also said that provincial advisory bodies like Wesgro, in respect of the Western Cape, were a good call for proactive preparation ahead of Britain’s long-awaited separation from the EU. And while Johnson has made it very clear that when Britain wakes up on November 1 it will no longer be part of the common market – deal or no deal – Makokera believes it’s easier said than done. “I think once Boris Johnson realises how hard it is he’s going to back off. “Unfortunately, for South Africa it also means more of the same – uncertainty! We don’t know where this is going right now.” On the surer side, she added that there “isn’t too much of a prospect of too much shift”.
For the time being only a handful of exports will be impacted by a hard Brexit. – Catherine Grant Makokera
