China is forecast to achieve a trade surplus of approximately $1.2 trillion in 2025, largely driven by robust export growth to emerging markets in Africa, India and South-east Asia.
Exports to Asian partners have already surpassed pre-Covid levels, sustaining this surplus despite ongoing global economic headwinds, according to the latest data by UN Comtrade and the World Bank.
But widening trade imbalances have heightened scrutiny and triggered protectionist measures in several countries.
Mexico has followed the example of the United States by imposing tariffs of up to 50% on key Chinese imports such as vehicles, automotive parts and steel in a bid to shield domestic industries.
In India, authorities have launched about 50 investigations into Chinese imports amid concerns over market flooding and unfair competition.
Similarly, Indonesia’s Minister of Trade, Budi Santoso, has voiced concern over the influx of low-cost Chinese goods and pledged to monitor the situation closely.
Although the country’s textile industry only contributes about one percent to Indonesia’s GDP, the sector provides employment for more than 3.6 million people, much-needed jobs that are threatened by cheap Chinese imports, including denim items for as little as IDR690-705 (+/-80 South African cents).
South America is also feeling the strain.
Countries such as Chile and Ecuador have reported a sharp 143% increase in low-cost Chinese imports, prompting alarm and discussions over trade defence measures. Brazil, China’s largest South American trading partner, has warned that the export surge could endanger its fragile economy.
For the time being, tariff-free access remains in place for certain Chinese firms, notably electric-vehicle manufacturer BYD (Build Your Dreams).
A notable dimension of China’s export strategy is the rise of e-commerce platforms like Temu. The low-cost goods company has expanded to over 90 markets as of April 2025 and gross merchandise volume (GMV) has exploded.
By mid-2024, Temu’s GMV had reached tens of billions of US dollars, growing from US$29 million in 2022 to peaks of $21.6 billion in the first half of 2024.
Temu’s model enables China-based vendors to ship directly to consumers abroad, bypassing many intermediaries and reducing cost layers, a de minimis advantage either under review or now restricted in several countries.
In the US, for example, imports under $800 are now also subject to tariffs, resulting in China suspending direct shipments to American consumers.
Since then, Chinese e-commerce exports to the US fell by about 65% in volume in the first quarter of 2025, even as exports to Europe rose by 28%, reflecting a strategic redirection towards US destinations.
Despite these tensions, the Chinese government has urged its BRICS partners to resist economic protectionism. Deputy Finance Minister Liao Min has said China is merely responding to market demand and is not engaging in aggressive trade practices.
