A benchmarking tool monitoring digital bunker prices, used by more than 400 ports globally, has recorded significant price declines for 380 high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO), very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO), and marine gas oil low sulphur (MGO LS).
The MABUX Bunker Yearly Outlook for 2025 shows that although bunker prices were stable in the first half (H1) of 2025, and improved in June, there was a downward trend in H2.
The 380 HSFO Index fell by $132.55 per metric tonne for the same last-six-months period year on year, while VLSFO fell $128.27, and MGO LS decreased by $43.43 by the end of 2025.
Declines ranged from 24-42% for 380 HSFO and 18-35% for VLSFO across regions, with Africa/Middle East seeing the steepest drops, Container News reports.
The downward trajectory in bunker prices noted in the outlook serves as a partial indication of early 2026 trends, MABUX director Sergey Ivanov says.
MABUX states that the bearish pressure on 380 HSFO, VLSFO and MGO LS prices observed through late 2025 is expected to persist into the initial months of 2026, driven by balanced supply-demand dynamics and stable crude oil benchmarks.
No sharp reversal is anticipated without new catalysts, aligning with the year's end declines of 24-42% regionally.
Container News adds that upcoming regulations, such as the Canadian Arctic Emission Control Area in March 2026, will shift demand toward low-sulphur fuels like MGO LS and VLSFO.
This is expected to have a potentially moderating effect on HSFO declines while sustaining overall softness.
While fluctuations across the sulphur fuel spectrum play out, alternative fuels like LNG should remain competitively priced, the outlook shows.
