By avoiding load shedding for the next few months, we are placing Eskom’s functioning capacity under increased strain – precipitating the possibility of a nationwide grid collapse. “It’s something that’s too ghastly to contemplate,” warned energy analyst Ted Blom. Speaking after the announcement by Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan last week that “there should be no load shedding from this point onwards”, Blom didn’t mince his words about the reasons behind the minister’s optimism. “The minister has admitted that we’re sitting with people at Eskom who are not fully experienced. And now he’s
basing his prognosis on people who are inadequately experienced.” Blom added that even if Gordhan was right and any incidents of load shedding from now until August did not exceed Stage 1, the strain it was placing on the power utility’s working system could be disastrous. ‘It’s like running an old car harder, with the chances of it breaking down being far higher.” Commenting on “the plan” that Gordhan announced, Blom explained that to avoid load shedding for whatever reason possible was madness, especially when generating capacity was on the verge of total collapse. “Essentially, what they are saying is that they are going to cut back on essential maintenance [done during
periods of load shedding] and push working capacity harder.” Blom said that whether the country liked it or not, “load shedding is a grid protection system, and for the minister to say that it won’t exceed 1 000 megawatts is inadvertently increasing the chances of a grid meltdown that could set this country back 10 to 20 years”. Moreover, Blom stressed that although high-stage periods of load shedding angered the public and were costly for business, these were actually good in the long run – because lengthy periods of electricity downtime afforded Eskom the opportunity to carry out muchneeded maintenance. “But now, by promising to keep the lights on as we approach the election, Gordhan is actually doing more damage and is raising the spectre of a grid collapse occurring from 30% to 70%.” Blom also expressed his dismay at government’s indecision over energy alternatives. “If we opened the grid to power generated through
household solar systems, we could add up to 8 gigawatts of power into the grid. “Another solution would be to bring in power barges (shipbased generation stations) that are freely available and could correct capacity within 30 days.” Such alternative measures would mean a grid shift, which would necessitate controlled power outages of up to three days – but the country would have the longer-term benefit of secure supply.
And the lessened load on Eskom could free up time for the power utility to do the necessary maintenance to unreliable capacity. So why is Eskom not listening to the likes of Blom? “I think it’s because of ideology. Eskom asked me to put a team together, but the utility has been in limbo for more than a year now. “In the meantime, what we have is a lack of imagination. Maybe it’s because Eskom is run from Luthuli House.”
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It’s like running an old car harder, with the chances of it breaking down being far higher. – Ted Blom
