If correct, the South African Crop Estimate Committee’s second forecast for the country's total summer crop production of white and yellow maize, sorghum, ground nuts, sunflowers, soybeans and dry beans of 12.6 million tonnes will represent a 16.5% decline from the 15.1 million tonnes achieved in 2018. However, this second
forecast is still a 0.37% improvement on the initial 2019 forecast by the committee, despite persistent dry conditions experienced in the western parts of the Free State and North West provinces. Suboptimal conditions have meant that the planting period for maize was delayed in these areas, which raised
concerns about whether the country would harvest enough volume. Despite this, the committee believes that not much damage has been caused in terms of maize yields, slightly increasing their original summer production estimate to 10.56 million tonnes. Its second forecast for soybean, groundnut and dry bean production remains the same as its first, while total sorghum production is now estimated to decline by 5 000 tonnes. In terms of sunflower seed, the committee maintained its original
estimate of 563 000 tonnes for the season, which is slightly below the 600 000 tonnes per annum average. “My general sentiment is that in the central and eastern parts of the country, conditions have been relatively good. This is reflected in the soybean numbers (1.3 million tonnes) estimated by the committee,” says Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa.
“I'm still worried about the yields of white maize and sunflower seed. There could be a downward revision on those numbers in late April. I'm still worried about the yields of white maize and sunflower seed. “ – Wandile Sihlobo
